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☆ Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Tucked at a corner table inside a Barnes & Noble cafe in Logan Town Centre, a sprawling exurban shopping complex in Blair County, he tapped away at two laptops. His work PC was open with notes on his clients: local seniors in need of at-home health care and living assistance, whom he serves as a registered nurse. On his sleeker, personal laptop he eyed some coursework for the master’s degree in nursing he’s finishing so he can work as a supervisor soon. Shortly after becoming certified, he pushed through long days in a hospital during the height of the Covid pandemic at a salary of $40,000. Today, he has what he calls “the best nursing job pay-wise I’ve ever had,” at $85,000.

Persons: Darren Mattern, “ Organizations: Barnes, Logan Town Centre Locations: Pennsylvania, Noble, Logan Town, Blair County

☆ Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

For much of modern history, even the richest nations have been subject to big perennial upswings and crashes in commercial activity almost as fixed as the four seasons. Hiring and investment crest and fall into a contraction as consumer confidence wanes and spending craters. Sales fall, bankruptcies and unemployment rise. But a brigade of academic economists and prominent voices on Wall Street are asking if the unruly business cycle they learned in school, and witnessed in practice, has fundamentally morphed into a tamer beast. Rick Rieder, who manages about $3 trillion in assets at the investment firm BlackRock, is one of them.

Persons: Rick Rieder Locations: BlackRock

☆ U.S. Employers Added 303,000 Jobs in 39th Straight Month of Growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare. It was the 39th straight month of job growth. And employment levels are now more than three million greater than forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office just before the pandemic shock.

Organizations: Labor Department Locations: U.S

☆ Live Updates: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Remain Robust
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedWith the year’s first quarter in the books, the Labor Department will release its latest update on the labor market Friday morning. Economists expect the March report to show that over 200,000 jobs were added for the fourth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report is expected to show that the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in February. It’s a remarkable change from a year ago, when top financial analysts were largely convinced that a recession was only months away. Nevertheless, there is “still absolutely nothing happening” in key measures of long-run jobless claims, said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies the labor market.

Persons: ”, Joe Davis, Guy Berger Organizations: Labor Department, Bloomberg, Federal, Vanguard, Federal Reserve, Glass Institute Locations: U.S

☆ Auto Insurance Spike Hampers the Inflation Fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Job growth, wage growth and business growth are all lively, and inflation has steeply fallen from its 2022 highs. One reason may be sticker shock from some highly visible prices — even as overall inflation has calmed. The cost of car insurance is a key example. Motor vehicle insurance rose 1.4 percent on a monthly basis in January alone and has risen 20.6 percent over the past year, the largest jump since 1976. According to a recent private-sector estimate, the average annual premium for full-coverage car insurance in 2024 is $2,543, compared with $2,014 in 2023 and $1,771 in 2022.

Locations: dampening

☆ Can America Turn a Productivity Boomlet Into a Boom?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Kevin Rezvani came of age in kitchens: spending summers at his grandfather’s bakery in Japan, doing work-study in his college cafeteria and working for years as a line cook at mid-tier restaurants, along with some stints in fast food. Too many ventures, he says, are not profitable enough to justify all the work hours needed from managers and employees to stay afloat, much less grow. In other words, they fall short on productivity. “There’s a very fine line between doing OK, and doing well in this business,” said Mr. Rezvani, now 36. “And if you’re doing OK, it’s not worth your time.”

Persons: Kevin Rezvani, Rezvani, ” Locations: Japan

Maybe I won’t set up that factory. These companies — the small, private enterprises that are responsible for roughly half the private-sector employment in the country — are already having to pay much more for debt. They fund their operations using cash from sales, business credit cards and private loans — all of which are generally more expensive options for financing payrolls and operations. Now, they’re paying 10 percent interest on short-term loans. Hiring within these firms has slowed, and their credit card balances are higher than they were before the pandemic, even as spending has slowed.

Persons: Ms, Sheth Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Bank of America Locations: ”

☆ U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs last month, falling short of forecasts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“This is mildly concerning but for now, these are still strong numbers,” said Sonu Varghese, chief market strategist at Carson Group, an asset management firm. The October numbers may have been held down because the survey was taken during major work stoppages — notably the strikes by the United Automobile Workers and related layoffs. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. Some 96,000 people reported being out of work because of a strike or labor dispute in October, the most since 1997. But she added that unemployment would have to tick higher over a longer horizon for it to be clear that recession risks were heightened.

Persons: ”, Sonu Varghese, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Carson Group, United Automobile Workers, Federal Reserve

The report is also expected to find that gains in average hourly earnings were solid but decelerated to 4 percent from a year earlier. The September report showed an unexpectedly strong gain of 336,000 jobs — a figure that will be revised Friday — and a year-over-year wage gain of 4.2 percent. has reached tentative contract agreements with the three major U.S. automakers and told striking members to return to their jobs. “We expect the October employment report to show a large deceleration in job growth, although the moderation will be overstated by the impact of striking autoworkers,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. “Excluding those workers,” she added, “job growth will still be relatively robust, although narrowly based.”Since early 2022, the benchmark interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has surged from near zero to more than 5 percent.

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Jerome H, Powell, Mr, “, ” Organizations: Bloomberg, United Automobile Workers, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve

☆ Strong U.S. Job Growth Shows Economy Is Defying Challenges
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

In a sign of continued economic stamina, American payrolls grew by 336,000 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday. The increase, almost double what economists had forecast, confirmed the labor market’s vitality and the overall hardiness of an economy facing challenges from a variety of forces. It was the 33rd consecutive month of job growth, and the increase was the biggest since January. The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, was steady at 3.8 percent. It has been below 4 percent for nearly two years, a stretch not achieved since the late 1960s.

Persons: payrolls Organizations: Labor Department

☆ What C.E.O.s Mean When They Talk About ‘Moats’
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

What C.E.O.s Mean When They Talk About ‘Moats’Nvidia has been hailed by Wall Street for the “moat” it built around its chips to power A.I. Starbucks is trying to figure out how to retain its moat in China. So what’s all this talk of moats, and why do executives use the word so much? Here’s what to know →

Organizations: Nvidia, Wall Street Locations: China

☆ Wrestling With Inequality, Some Conservatives Redraw Economic Blueprint
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More Republicans are coming to the view that economic inequality, or a lack of social mobility, is a problem in the United States — and that more can be done to enable families to attain or regain a middle-class life. Though discussions about inequality tend to be most visible among liberals, about four in 10 Republican or Republican-leaning adults think there is too much economic inequality in the country, according to a Pew Research survey. And among Republicans making less than about $40,000 a year who see too much economic inequality, 63 percent agree that the economic system “requires major changes” to address it. “I don’t think just having a bigger government is a solution to a lot of these problems,” said Inez Stepman, a senior policy analyst at the Independent Women’s Forum and a fellow with the Claremont Institute, a conservative think tank widely credited with giving Trumpism an intellectual framework. “But I do think that we could stand to think a little bit more on the right about how to make that 1950s middle-class life possible for people.”

Persons: ”, Inez Stepman Organizations: United States —, Republican, Pew Research, Independent Women’s, Claremont Institute Locations: United States

In the recreation-fueled, amenity-rich economy of Colorado’s Rocky Mountain region, there are two peak seasons: summer, with its rafting, hiking, fishing and biking, and the cold months filled with skiing and other winter activities. And then there is “mud season” — a liminal moment in spring when the alpine environment, slowly then suddenly, begins to thaw and only a trickle of tourists linger. It’s a period that workers in other places might bemoan. But for much of the financially stretched work force serving the assemblage of idyllic mountain towns across the state, a brief drop-off in business this spring was a respite. During a slow shift on a 51-degree day at the Blue Stag Saloon — a nook on Main Street in the vacation hub of Breckenridge — Michelle Badger, a veteran server, half-joked with her co-workers that “this winter was hell.”

Persons: Breckenridge — Michelle Badger Locations: Breckenridge

☆ Casino Mogul Steve Wynn Reaches Settlement Over Sexual Misconduct Claims
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Steve Wynn, the longtime Las Vegas casino magnate and major Republican donor, has agreed to pay Nevada a $10 million fine and to step back from its gambling industry in a settlement related to employee allegations of sexual misconduct, closing his yearslong battle with the state’s gambling regulators. Mr. Wynn, 81, who did not admit wrongdoing in the settlement, agreed to be “entirely removed from any direct or indirect involvement” with financing, advertising and consulting in the state. The agreement appears to end regulators’ investigations into Mr. Wynn’s conduct, though he could face additional fines if he violates its terms. Mr. Wynn resigned as chairman and chief executive of his casino empire, Wynn Resorts, in 2018, when the misconduct allegations began to emerge more publicly. Amid the fallout, he divested company shares and stepped down from his position as finance chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Persons: Steve Wynn, Wynn, Wynn’s Organizations: Las, Nevada, Nevada Gaming Commission, Wynn Resorts, Republican National Committee Locations: Las Vegas

☆ Against the Odds, the U.S. Economy Chugs Along, as Fears Linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the dampening effect of higher rates has confronted the robust income and spending of many households and the staying power of businesses — both buttressed by emergency pandemic support from Congress and the Fed. Though families, business managers and investors alike have had to contend with the frustrating realities of inflation and economic uncertainty, growth has continued, almost defiantly. Some economists think it might be possible to wrestle inflation down fully without causing a big jump in unemployment. “The environment of ‘pick the data point that supports your narrative’ persists,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “I still think a recession is more likely than not.”

Persons: Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, ”, Oren Klachkin, “ Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Oxford Economics

Friday’s fresh labor market data probably offered little to dissuade them from raising interest rates at their meeting later this month. The June data is the last payrolls report officials will receive before the central bank’s July 25-26 meeting. It underscored many of the labor market themes that have been present for months: While job growth is gradually slowing, wage growth remains abnormally quick and the unemployment rate is very low at 3.6 percent. Investors widely expect the Fed to raise rates at their July meeting, and Friday’s data only reinforced that prediction. But several policymakers have been clear that even as the pace moderates, they still expect to raise interest rates further.

Persons: ” Lorie K, Logan, ” Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, ” Fed

☆ The Job Market Cools, but Remains Strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, which was the 30th consecutive month of job growth, according to data released today. The gains, however, were the slowest in a two-and-a-half-year streak of growth. Analysts saw the report as more or less good news, especially following slowing inflation. Some experts have warned that the Federal Reserve’s moves to fight rising prices could result in significant job losses, while policymakers have expressed concerns that the job market remains too hot. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates later this month in an effort to drag inflation down lower, which could further cool the labor market.

Persons: Talmon Joseph Smith, “, —

☆ Ex-Prisoners Face Headwinds as Job Seekers, Even as Openings Abound
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | More About Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Hennings served 20 years in prison for reckless homicide in a confrontation he and his uncle had with another man. Even though he mostly hires formerly incarcerated men — at least 20 so far — he candidly tells some candidates that he has limited “wiggle room to decipher whether you changed or not.” Still, Mr. Hennings, 51, is quick to add that he has been frustrated by employers that use those circumstances as a blanket excuse. “I understand that it takes a little more work to try to decipher all of that, but I know from hiring people myself that you just have to be on your judgment game,” he said. “It’s hard for them not to look at you a certain way and still hard for them to get over that stigma,” Mr. Hennings said. “And that’s part of the conditioning and culture of American society.”

Persons: Hennings, —, ”, Mr

☆ Job Openings Rose in April, Defying Cooling Trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in openings may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to take interest rates even higher. “JOLTS data should not drastically color this broader assessment of labor market tightness but will matter at the margins for the Fed’s own perception of labor market heat.”Some question how much weight to give the report. After peaking at a record of around 12 million in March 2022, job openings as measured by the government have fallen overall. Some economists think the JOLTS report should be taken with a grain of salt. The May employment report, to be released by the Labor Department on Friday, will fill out the labor market picture before Fed policymakers meet on June 13 and 14.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Skanda Amarnath, Gregory Daco, ”, Goldman Sachs, — Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Bloomberg Locations: America, EY

☆ Companies Push Prices Higher, Protecting Profits but Adding to Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

PepsiCo is not alone in continuing to raise prices. “Everybody knew that the war in Ukraine was inflationary, that grain prices were going up, blah, blah, blah. The Producer Price Index, which measures the prices businesses pay for goods and services before they are sold to consumers, reached a high of 11.7 percent last spring. That rate has plunged to 2.3 percent for the 12 months through April. The price of carbonated drinks rose nearly 12 percent in April, over the previous 12 months.

☆ The Greatest Wealth Transfer in History Is Here, With Familiar (Rich) Winners
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | Karl Russell | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Pearl has two young adult sons with trust funds in the “seven figures.” He is also the chair of the Patriotic Millionaires, a nonprofit group of well-heeled Americans pushing for the wealthy to pay much more in taxes. “I have right now in my stock portfolio, some stock that my wife’s father, who died a long time ago, bought in the 1970s — that investment has gone from a few thousand dollars to many hundreds of thousands of dollars,” Mr. Pearl noted. “You just loan yourself money,” he explained, and in many if not most cases, the portfolio’s rate of return exceeds the rate of interest on the loan. Mr. Pearl doesn’t think the U.S. government “needs more money from rich people” to fund itself. Rather, his support for reforming the tax system arises from his belief that the rich have begun to monopolize resources and opportunity in a way that jeopardizes social stability and economic growth.

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